As an effective regional governance structure, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gives a forum for Southeast Asian members to share ideas and reach provisional agreements. Bangladesh presently stands firmly at ASEAN’s west door, drawing even closer to China’s strategical periphery, thanks to the expansion of ASEAN to a ten-member grouping. The deepening of ASEAN-Bangladesh ties appears to be a logical progression. Both are part of global economies becoming increasingly intertwined due to more open trade regimes in globalization. Economic motivations are frequently the driving force behind regionalization. As a result of its rapid expansion, ASEAN has sought external contact with a wide range of industrialized and emerging nations. Bangladesh became the 26th member of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in July 2006. If Bangladesh wants to strengthen the cooperative relationship with ASEAN countries, Bangladesh and ASEAN will have to build good relationships and trade with every country member of ASEAN, including Myanmar.
ASEAN and South Asian nations like Bangladesh have to expand and deepen their economic cooperation based on mutual benefit, which might lead to a more significant part of global commerce. Furthermore, Bangladesh and ASEAN nations have economic and security interests in trade and investments, connectivity, agriculture, tourism, communications, and technology transfer.
Rodrigo Duterte, the 16th president of the Philippines, said, “Bangladesh, having transitioned to one of the most successful economies in the world, will play a greater role in the South Asian region and beyond”.
Moreover, Bangladesh cannot stay immune to globalization’s corrosive effects. Sustainable growth is perhaps the most crucial aim in an age of economic struggle and cooperative security. These considerations suggest that both Bangladesh and ASEAN have the geoeconomics capacity to benefit from more significant trade and collaboration in the era of globalization, which includes the ASEAN nations’ economic powerhouses.
Steps to Strengthen Bangladesh-ASEAN Cooperative Relations
Firstly, Bangladesh is not a member of ASEAN and has never acceded to any ASEAN agreements, except for the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), which is insufficient to request “partnership,” let alone membership. The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) was signed in 1976, and it embodies universal principles of peaceful coexistence and friendly cooperation among Southeast Asian states. It is a legally binding code for regional and global inter-state relations. Bangladesh signed the treaty in 2007. The 12th ARF meeting in Vietnam in 2005 agreed to Bangladesh’s admission as the 26th member, and Bangladesh joined ARF, aiming to use meaningful involvement to transform Asia’s great variety into a beautiful mosaic of opportunity and harmony. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is also welcoming to Bangladesh, and the RCEP members are also members of ASEAN. By joining RCEP and other ASEAN structures, Bangladesh can also apply for membership in ASEAN in the future.
Secondly, by using the geographical significance of Bangladesh, it can also strengthen relations with ASEAN. Geographically, Bangladesh is the bridge between South and Southeastern countries. It has managed its good connection with its two neighbors: India and Myanmar. The seven sisters,’ i.e. the Indian states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Meghalaya, can only be reached from ‘mainland’ India via the ‘chicken neck,’ i.e. the tiny corridor north of Bangladesh, which requires a thousand-kilometer detour. Bangladesh and India have jointly established bus and train services for traveling. In 2020, Bangladesh revealed her interest in joining the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) trilateral highway to develop a strong connectivity in the ASEAN region. India is also planning to extend the IMT Highway with Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. The connectivity will enhance regional opportunities.
The Asian Highway (AH) was created by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP) in 1959 to promote regional cooperation. It is an initiative that brings Asian countries together to create a link to Europe. Benapole-Jessore-Kanchpur-Dhaka-Sylhet-Tamabil is the route of the AH1. Bangabandhu-Hatikamrul-Dhaka-Kanchpur-Sylhet-Tamabil is served by AH2, while the international seaports of Chittagong and Mongla are connected to AH1 and AH2 by AH41, allowing them to serve regional demands if necessary. The long-awaited Asian highway project will greatly relieve enormous pressure on Chittagong Port and benefit businesspeople. The Asian highway might eventually lead to a land connection with China’s Kunming province. The Bangladesh government’s decision to link Bangladesh to 27 nations via the projected Asian Highway network is a positive omen to be capable of joining ASEAN.
Thirdly, Bangladesh’s economic stability and growth can attract ASEAN members to accept Bangladesh as ASEAN dialogue partner and eventually a member. As Bangladesh prepares to upgrade itself from LDC to a developing country by 2026, Bangladesh focuses on bilateral preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and free trade agreements (FTAs) to boost export income and get better market access in the next three to six years. The Bangladeshi government is also looking into the potential of PTAs with forty-four nations. Dhaka has sought eleven nations to negotiate free trade agreements. Bangladesh has maintained strong trade connections with ASEAN countries for many years. The effect of Bangladesh on Southeast Asia may also be seen in their natural occupation as traders, particularly in port cities like Singapore and Bangkok.
Bangladesh’s ambition to engage with East Asian and ASEAN nations originates from a clear awareness of the region’s economic and security importance to Bangladesh’s interests. While being committed to the South Asian regional body SAARC and maintaining strong relations with India, Bangladesh should look outside the organization for regional and international alliances and engagement with ASEAN members. The economic growth of Bangladesh despite the Covid-19 pandemic shows Bangladesh’s success in the era of regionalization. ASEAN’s strategy to strengthen ties with both Japan and China to revitalize their economic systems suits Bangladesh. ASEAN’s original intent is to prevent any significant power from dominating Southeast Asia. Furthermore, ASEAN countries’ positive attitudes toward stronger ties with India and Bangladesh for their geo-strategic location. The positive indicates that the ASEAN members are seeking connectivity with Northeast Asia and South Asia, allowing additional South Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, to engage in the East Asian geographic process as future partners.
Fourthly, ASEAN cooperative policy and leadership is another possible way to strengthen the strong relationship between Bangladesh and ASEAN. Cambodia has been the current Chair of ASEAN since October 28, 2021. Cambodia shares good relations with Bangladesh. In 2014, the two countries agreed to form a joint commission to explore new areas of collaboration and reinforce existing ones in a variety of fields. The countries also signed ten deals in 2017 to enhance bilateral ties and strengthen economic cooperation benefits. As Chair of ASEAN, Cambodia has shown its top concern on the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen stated on January 18, 2022, that Cambodia’s ASEAN Chairmanship gives an excellent chance to promote the safe and dignified repatriation of the Rohingyas to Myanmar, who are now living in Bangladesh. Prime Minister Hun Sen stated during a joint news conference held following his bilateral meeting with his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina in 2017 that Cambodia had hoped that Bangladesh and Myanmar would find a solution allowing the Rohingya to return home.
The ASEAN-Bangladesh strong connection should be viewed as an essential tool for maintaining the strength of market-driven economic growth, avoiding selective regionalism, and encouraging a well-integrated global economy. Due to the influx of Rohingyas and increased maritime boundary problems preventing Bangladesh and Myanmar from accessing marine resources in the Bay of Bengal. It is crucial to open the road for the two countries to work together to address difficulties through regional organizations. As ideas and interests converge, ASEAN-Bangladesh ties will be able to flourish fast in the future. ASEAN’s relationship with Bangladesh is crucial in resolving new challenges such as the interconnection of socioeconomic (i.e. democratization, protection of the environment, protecting human rights, or labor standards) and trade concerns presented by Developed Countries.
Pakistan’s National Interests Must Protected at All Cost
An evolving great game for the Pearl of the Indian Ocean
Aditi Chakrovorty, Senior Research Associate, The Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA)( https://www.cbgabd.org/). I have completed my BSS and MSS from the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, and received the Fellowship of the Belt and Road Initiative (Sichuan, China) on South Asian Affairs in 2019. Email: aditichakrovorty[at]gmail.com
Pakistan’s National Interests Must Protected at All Cost
Russia Dealing with Neo-Colonialism in Africa
An evolving great game for the Pearl of the Indian Ocean
‘Triple crisis’ in Africa aggravated by war in Ukraine
BIMSTEC and Bangladesh-India Cooperation: Mutuality and Prospects
Impacts of Covid-19 on the world economy
Certainly that Pakistan is passing through the worst economic and political crisis in its history of more than seven decades. Current challenges are unprecedented. Foreign debt has reached its peak, inflation, price hike, political turmoil, etc., all are reinforcing difficulties for Pakistan. Under such a critical scenario, the nation has to think smartly, and wisely. Without compromising national interests, Pakistan needs to explore all possible options to improve its economy and political stability. Pakistan has the capability to come out of the crisis, in the past, we did come out of a few severe crises. It is believed, that when we put our national interests at the top, the nation is united and can overcome any challenges.
There are signals from Washington for positive developments, China is also assisting Pakistan to come out of severe challenges. CPEC is serving as Oxygen for the ailing economy.
Fortunately, following the visit of former prime minister Imran Khan to Moscow, Russia has sent a draft four-year (2022-2025) roadmap for the development of trade and economic cooperation including an increase in bilateral trade turnover, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.
The draft roadmap, shared by the Russian embassy in Islamabad with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will stimulate the economic activity of Russian and Pakistani companies in the markets of both countries. It will also assist business communities of both countries in raising awareness about the opportunities available in the markets of the Russian Federation and Pakistan.
The sector-wise detail of the proposed roadmap is as follows:-
Industrial sector: Considering the possibility of supplies of assembled vehicles for state and private customers and implementation of the vehicles assembly project in Pakistan, Russian company Ulyanovsky Avtomobilny ZavodLLC (UAZ LLC) has shown interest in establishing such a plant.
Supplies of utility equipment, transportation management digital solutions, the possibility of supplies of railway engineering products, the possibility of supplies of uninterrupted power systems, as well as, other converting equipment are on offer from Russia.
Russia asks Pakistan to start talks on bilateral trade:-
With respect to cooperation in the field of the aviation industry with Pakistan, consideration of the possibility of supplies of air navigation and air space control, surveillance and communication systems, weather radars, M/s Almaz Antey JSC, and Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCCA) to cooperate with each other.
Cooperation in the field of pharmaceuticals and chemical products: Promotion of certification of the products of the Russian company Ozon Pharmaceuticals LLC, supplies of Russian medicines, the registration process of DNA human insulin, Rosinsulin, in Pakistan, and assistance in organizing an inspection by a specialized agency is on the cards. Russian organization, Zavid Medsintz and DRAP will cooperate with each other in this field.
The possibility of supplies of Russian chemical industry products is also part of the proposed roadmap.
Both countries will cooperate in the oil and gas industry, extraction of other mineral resources, pipeline construction, and related infrastructure. Both sides will extend cooperation in offshore projects in Pakistan, as well as, outside Pakistan.
Implementation of prospective joint projects in natural gas pipeline construction, including natural gas, has pipeline project “Pakistan Stream” (Karachi-Lahore); natural gas pipeline project Russia-Kazakhstan- Uzbekistan- Afghanistan-Pakistan, and natural gas pipeline project Gwadar-Nawabshah. OGDCL and Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) from the Pakistani side cooperate with Russian oil and gas companies.
For logistics and procurement of large-scale infrastructure projects in Pakistan, Russian Gazprom’s subsidiary Neft- Snabzheniye LLC and Pakistan companies will cooperate with each other. Russian company Zarubezhneft JSC and Pakistan Company MPCL will cooperate in the implementation of joint projects for the development of oil and gas fields in Pakistan and in third countries.
Russian company Rosgeo will undertake an analysis of the Pakistani mineral resource sector to identify possible areas of cooperation/ investment. Both sides will cooperate in expanding the Pakistani mineral mining and processing business. Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) through its subsidiary Bolan Mining Enterprise (BME) and Russian mining companies will engage with each other.
For LNG supplies to Pakistan, Russian company PJSC Novatek will interact with Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) and Pakistan State Oil (PSO).
The Russian side will invest in setting up refineries, upgrading existing refineries, virtual LNG pipelines, onshore storage of LNG, and strategic oil storage and strategic gas storages (underground gas storage in continuation of the “Pakistan Stream” project).
Russian company Gazprom EP International B.V will provide System of Production Facilities Monitoring (SPFM) software for oil and gas field production facilities in Pakistan.
Both sides will cooperate in the extraction of hydropower and renewable resources including the project of a multipurpose dam on the river Shyok.
Russian companies will participate in prospective projects in the power industry of Pakistan including (i) TPP Muzaffargarh- renovation, modernization, and up-gradation of the main equipment achieving an increase in the unit capacity of the existing three units from 210 to 235 MW each;(ii) transfer of existing units of TPPs to a combined seam-gas cycle with an increase in both the power of the units and their efficiency;(iii) HPP “Dasu 2” the second stage of TPP Dasu with a capacity 2100 MW (construction of a turbine hall); and(iv) HPP “Takot 3” 1490 MW supply, installation and commissioning of the main generating equipment (construction of the turbine hall).. Menace of terrorism is an international curse and should be addressed collectively.
Sanctions on Russia are imposed by the US unilaterally, it has not passed through the UN, and so it is not mandatory for all countries to abide by them. India is violating American sanctions, and procuring cheaper fuel, Grain, and Weapons like S-400.
Pakistan is a sovereign state and needs to look after its vital interests. The past experience, aligning with only one super power was a bitter lesson, and need to realign and multiple options to be explored. We may keep good relations with all and seek our objectives from any nation, whichever suits us. Pakistan needs to avail all available opportunities.
Sri Lanka is currently reeling under its worst economic crisis since independence in 1948 and the worst humanitarian crisis since the end of the civil war in 2009. Here, however, I look at how India and China try to extend their influence on the island in entirely different ways.
Sri Lanka is regarded as Asia’s oldest democracy in terms of universal adult suffrage, dating back to 1931. But, unfortunately, for twelve years in the last two decades, the island has been under the authoritarian grip of the Rajapaksa family who lead the country to the brink of bankruptcy and the people of Sri Lanka are now paying the price for the manner in which they used their democratic right of voting. The island is also referred to as the ‘Pearl of the Indian Ocean’ due to its geostrategic importance.
Being a small island country in the Indian Ocean with a population of only 22 million, Sri Lanka always try to balance its ties with the two large regional rivals – India and China. Even though India is the island state’s only immediate neighbour, the far-away China has been vying for influence in the island for a long time now.
The southernmost point of the island of Rameshwaram in India’s south-eastern coast, a place named Dhanushkodi, lies only about 27 km from the town of Thalaimannar in Sri Lanka’s north-western coast. As per Hindu beliefs, Lord Ram’s Bridge (the ‘Rama Setu’) once stood in between these two points, and now it’s visible from the sky only as a chain of under-water limestone shoals. Scores of Sri Lankan refugees are now taking the same route and are arriving at the shores of the India’s Tamil Nadu state in rented vessels and fishing boats to escape the current economic and humanitarian crisis that the island is currently reeling under.
Buddhism, a faith practiced by over 70 per cent of Sri Lankans, came from India, the land of its origin. The northern and eastern parts of the island have an added history of falling under the rule of India-based Tamil kingdoms in the medieval era and even today have a significant proportion of Tamil population, one of the two major ethnicities in Sri Lanka, along with the majority Sinhalese.
India’s navy continues to be the first-responder and net-security provider throughout the region, including in Sri Lanka, delivering medicines, vaccines and other essentials even via its warships during the pandemic and even during the ongoing crisis. All these facts underline that no country is historically, geographically and culturally close to Sri Lanka as India is, yesterday and today.
The subtle advent of the Chinese challenge
In the last decade or so, India’s traditional ‘sphere of influence’ in its immediate neighbourhood in South Asia and the Indian Ocean is faced with a challenge from an unwelcome actor lying hundreds of miles away, who likes playing a disruptive role in the regional balance of power dynamics. China has been strongly employing its enormous economic resources to eclipse and undermine India’s role in the region, and thereby in Sri Lanka, which is strategically located in the crossroads of sea lanes in the Indian Ocean.
Since the mid-2000s, China has been pumping in money in the form of easy loans and investments, and has been funding infrastructure projects in the backdrop of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) between the Sri Lankan government and the separatist Tamil militia group known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) that ended after 26 years of fighting. But, the Sri Lankan society still remains divided with the rise of Buddhist majoritarianism and continuing discrimination against the Tamils. In the post-war years, the war-torn country was badly craving for reconstruction and recovery. China astutely cashed in that necessity.
An increased Chinese footprint in the island could also jeopardise India’s naval superiority and interests in the Indian Ocean, where Sri Lanka is strategically located. In 2014, two Chinese submarines and a warship visited Colombo port, raising alarms in New Delhi as it had an immediate consequential bearing on India’s strategic interests.
During the final phase of the Sri Lankan Civil War, India took a stance of delivering only non-lethal weapons, owing to the Tamil question, while China supplied necessary arms, thereby winning the trust of the ruling Rajapaksas, who were instrumental in winning the civil war. This was when China began to win Sri Lankan public trust, but it happened at the cost of India.
The Tamil question and India’s UNHRC dilemma
After the civil war, the Sri Lankan government was charged with allegations of committing war crimes against innocent civilian Tamils. To counter them, Colombo moved a resolution at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in 2009 explaining that it acted only to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of the country. India supported this resolution, despite the Tamil question, keeping China in mind. But, this was faced with huge domestic backlash, especially from the Tamil Nadu state leadership and the diaspora, which forced India to vote against Sri Lanka in the U.S.-drafted resolutions of 2012 and 2013 on the issue.
At the same time, China backed Sri Lanka in rejecting this resolution by stating that it amounted to interfering in the island’s internal affairs and that it could affect the ongoing post-war reconciliation process. This was a favourable turning point in China’s relations with Sri Lanka. In 2014 and 2021, however, India abstained in UNHRC resolutions that held the Sri Lankan government accountable for its malign role in the civil war, thereby taking a diplomatically balanced stand.
The consolidation of the Chinese geostrategic challenge
In the meantime, China had become Sri Lanka’s largest import destination and trading partner by 2016, and today its largest creditor as well. In 2017, the Sri Lankan government leased the port of Hambantota in the island’s southern coastline, overlooking the Indian Ocean, to a Chinese state-owned company for 99 years, causing strategic insecurity for India, as the prospect of the port getting militarized in the future, under Chinese control, loomed large.
This is considered as part of China’s larger ‘String of Pearls’ strategy to subvert Indian interests in the Indian Ocean by taking control of strategic port facilities in certain key littoral states and islands such as Djibouti, Pakistan, Maldives, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The Hambantota port is poised to be a key transit point in China’s ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, which is part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive trillion-dollar, inter-continental infrastructure and connectivity project led by China. The Chinese are also involved in the Colombo Port City mega-project, which is dubbed as the ‘future Dubai’ of South Asia.
Earlier this year, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited Sri Lanka, where he proposed a forum for Indian Ocean island states and asserted that no ‘third party’ should interfere in China-Sri Lanka ties, in a clear reference to India. While the Indian foreign minister Dr S. Jaishankar also visited the island to assure India’s support to the island, took part in a summit meeting of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and called on Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. By the way, Sri Lankan Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa visited India in March, this year. Such official visits are also seen from and to the Chinese side as well.
Since the beginning of this year, India has offered more than $2.4 billion in lines of credits and currency swaps at different levels to support Sri Lanka, in addition to facilitating arrangements under the aegis of SAARC and the Asian Clearing Union. Despite this, Sri Lanka still relies on Chinese credit to loosen its foreign debt burden. In the past two years, ever since the pandemic began, China has offered about $2.8 billion as ‘financial support’ to Sri Lanka.
Even after having knowledge about Colombo’s financial constraints and poor repayment capacity, Beijing continued to channel billions of dollars as quick loans, lines of credit and one-sided investments in Sri Lanka without following due procedures, while it was actually intended to gain strategic leverage over India by entangling the island in a ‘debt-trap’, the most abominable form of chequebook diplomacy.
This is the same strategy that Beijing is employing elsewhere in the ‘Global South’ countries, particularly in the African continent. In contrast, India’s engagement in the Indian Ocean region is summed up in the inclusive maritime doctrine of ‘Security and Growth for All in the Region’ (SAGAR), which was unveiled in 2015.
However, it is true that India has found it difficult to catch up with the Chinese in this new ‘great game’ for relative influence as it has a number of structural constraints in terms of expediency in bureaucratic functionality and delivery. However, it needs to be stated that Sri Lanka reached this abysmal point in its economic history not only because of its dependency on Chinese finance, but also due to a combination of domestic factors, such as sheer misgovernance, corruption, and nepotism.
Panning out the current crisis
Today, people in Sri Lanka are facing a shortage of food, fuel and other essential commodities. Power blackouts and inflation became a new normal, and the people are out in the streets protesting for the removal of the current regime from power. Data show that forex reserves dipped 70% in the past two years and foreign debt more than doubled in the ten years from 2010 to 2020, and the situation further exacerbated during the pandemic.
For the first time since independence, last month, Sri Lanka announced that it would default on all of its external sovereign debt, amounting to $51 billion, after running out of forex reserves. The country now badly needs a debt-restructuring plan with hopes of a bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). New Delhi and Beijing have also stepped up their efforts to save Sri Lanka from complete bankruptcy.
This unprecedented crisis began to manifest at least two years back and intensified towards the end of 2021. The government ignored the early indications and, in fact, made it worse. The current majoritarian and populist regime of the Rajapaksas took a series of blunders and policy mis-steps since they came back to power in 2019, which requires another essay’s column space to explain in detail.
The Rajapaksas also happen to be heavily pro-China in their outlook since the concluding phase of the civil war. Even though Sri Lanka’s economic trouble predates the current regime, it was during their first stint, amid the civil war, that the government availed massive loans from China to invest in various projects leading to an increase in the build-up of Chinese clout in the affairs of the island. India still has persisting concerns on the treatment of Sri Lanka’s Tamils, many of whom still awaits justice for the war-time atrocities committed on them by the government and continues to be under constant surveillance.
The way ahead for Indian diplomacy
Turning a blind eye on China’s efforts to make further economic in-roads into Sri Lanka will have serious strategic repercussions for India in the near future. India should continue to collaborate with Japan and other like-minded countries to offer joint projects in Sri Lanka as it is with the case of the Colombo Port’s West Container Terminal development project. India continues to be the most approachable country for Sri Lanka even in these challenging times.
This crisis reminded Sri Lanka of the perils of unchecked loans and brought the genuineness of ‘seemingly liberal’ Chinese loans into question. It is highly likely that the current crisis may further push Colombo to the Chinese side, particularly if India, Japan and the West do not adequately address Sri Lanka’s concerns. Being geographically the closest, India has to take the lead in stepping in and offer sustainable solutions to prevent such an eventuality, and a permanent Chinese naval presence in its backyard is not something it wishes to see. India’s robust private sector can also contribute in this building economic resilience in the island through bona fide investments, particularly in the sectors of Information Technology, heavy industries, urban infrastructure, and consumer goods.
Moreover, regional platforms sans China such as the BIMSTEC and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) have to be utilised to offer sustainable economic, developmental and technological alternatives to Sri Lanka, and most importantly, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) needs to be rejuvenated to ensure prompt and collective response to issues of regional importance and to support each other members in times of crisis. It would also serve as a counterweight to Chinese aspirations and recent moves to form alternative regional mechanisms that could further undermine India’s role in the region.
It is getting clearer day by day that a drastic power transition is underway in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region in the past decade and the relative positions of India and China in those dynamics vis-à-vis smaller countries will have far-reaching consequences for regional peace and stability.
On 27th March 2021, in front of hundreds of thousands of people, in a rally, former Prime Minster of Pakistan, Imran Khan openly announced meddling of “ foreign elements” in Pakistani political crisis. He waved the letter at the massive crowd gathered in Islamabad. He termed the letter as “threatening”, sent by US and is seeking his removal as the PM.
This statement came when Imran Khan was about to face a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly. He was expected to lose this motion as many of his allied parties have joined the coalition of Opposition Parties. Opposition parties that had formed a coalition consisting of thirteen plus parties are called as Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). The opposition was not quiet about their discontent with the government’s performance in economic and political arenas. They said that Khan has failed to revive the country’s economy that was damaged by COVID-19.
An operation of regime change funded by external powers was underway, he said. The opposition lawmakers have the backing of US government. He claimed the letter to contain the evidence of an international conspiracy to remove his government.
He stated that the memo said “if the no-confidence motion passes, Pakistan will be forgiven, if not, there will be consequences.” The letter was given through Pakistan’s Ambassador and was specifically against Imran Khan and his role as a premier.
The letter was sent by the then ambassador to US – Asad Majeed. This was on the basis of Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu. Asad Majeed has now been replaced by Ambassador Masood Khan. The cable was sent a day before the opposition submitted the no-confidence motion, on March 7. A diplomatic cable from the Pakistani ambassador was cited as a proof in which it was said that an American official warned there would be “consequences” if the PTI Chairman remained Prime Minister after his recent visit to Russia. Imran Khan went to Moscow in late February. The visit took place on 24th February, the same day Russia invaded Ukraine.
The opposition responded by considering such a letter as fake and a ploy to avoid the vote of no-confidence.
US categorically denied sending such ‘threat letter.’ The US department emphasized that no government agency or any official had sent a letter to Pakistan on the current political situation. A State Department spokesperson said, “According to some diplomatic sources in Washington, the letter could be a diplomatic cable from Washington, drafted by a senior Pakistani diplomat.” Later in another statement, amidst the political turmoil it further said that “USA supports the peaceful upholding of constitutional and democratic principles”
The vote of no-confidence was to take place on 2nd April 2022, but Parliament’s deputy Speaker Qasim Suri, blocked the vote in a surprising move. He said that the vote reflected “foreign interference” and went against the constitution, quoting Article 5 that asked for loyalty to the state. Soon after, the PM dissolved the parliament and called for quick elections. However, the opposition responded furiously and considered this move as “unconstitutional” and treason. A petition by PDM was submitted to the Supreme Court of Justice. The Court ruled that the Deputy Speaker’s ruling was in contradiction “to the Constitution and the law and of no legal effect, and the same are hereby set aside”. The ruling was erroneous. The same was ruled for Presidential decision of dissolving the National Assembly. The Prime Minister Imran Khan and his cabinet’s position was restored.
According to the court’s ruling the session was to be conducted on 9th April. It was prolonged with the speaker adjourning the session three times and stretched out speeches by PTI officials. Though the political situation on Saturday was extremely dramatic with rapid and usuals steps being taken. The Speaker and Deputy Speaker resigned just a few hours before the clock struck 12. Finally, the vote of no-confidence took place on 10th April and Imran Khan became the first Pakistani Prime Minister to be ousted through such a motion. Shehbaz Sharif became the 23rd Prime Minster after a vote the next day. It was followed by PTI members resigning en masse.
Moreover, Russia and China entered the political crisis. On 6th April, Russia lent support to Imran Khan by accusing USA of committing “another attempt of seamless interference” in domestic matters of Pakistan. Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said this was done to “punish” Imran Khan. China also got involved in the situation by warning US against ‘interference in Pakistan’s internal matters.
US-Pakistan relations had started to slightly strain with Pakistan’s partnership with China strengthening more with time. They were also affected by more American focus on India to counter China in the region. China’s rapid rise has been perceived as a threat to USA’s position as a unilateral world leader.
Many doubt the presence of such a letter and consider it a plot penned down by Imran Khan to remain in power. However, other than Khan’s visit to Moscow, other factors have also added to America’s discomfort with Imran khan.
The visit was publicly condemned by the Biden administration. In addition, the US diplomats in Pakistan prompted the government to issue statements about Pakistan condemning the Russian invasion. They also asked for supporting resolution by the United Nations General Assembly on Russia ceasing the conflict. Pakistan abstained and voiced demands for dialogue and diplomacy.
Pakistan’s Independent foreign policy under Imran Khan’s government had also been a problem for America. Though no major changes were made to the foreign policy, former PM’s vocal stature had also caused problems. His stance on Palestine, Kashmir and Islamophobia on global platforms foreign policy with China, Russia and Afghanistan and his reluctance of normalizing relations with Israel have stirred unease from some countries. Also, Khan’s leadership in the Muslim World becoming more popular.
History records that Pakistani soil has been used by America multiple times for furthering their own interests. From Cold War to War on Terror, we have always been ready to provide assistance to US. Recently, Pakistan’s active role US-Taliban Peace deal and in the evacuation process as well.
The fact cannot be denied that America always, especially after its victory as unilateral leader in Cold War, has heavily influenced Pakistani politics. Many times, it has intervened directly and indirectly as well.
It is worth noting that Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto has also claimed that an American conspiracy to remove him from power. Due to his refusal of giving up Pakistan’s nuclear program. He told US had “threatened” to make an example. Afterwards, in a mysterious plane crash General Zia died for which US is blamed by many Pakistanis. This was due to Zia becoming a liability for Washington in 1989 after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the mid-2000s, Richard Boucher, the former assistant secretary for State for South and Central Asian Affairs repeatedly met Benazir Bhutto when she was focusing on returning to politics and was seeking reconciliation with General Musharraf. In 2008, Pervaiz Musharraf’s ouster was achieved by Bush administration more openly through his naive collaboration. The incident took place because of USA’s relation that General could no longer mobilize public support for the American “War on Terror.”
America has always interfered and participated in other countries’ domestic affairs. It has a long history of meddling in the political affairs of other countries. Such a history spans over at least a century and since the end of Second World War, it extends into all regions of the world. It is characterized by subversion and overthrow of foreign regimes.
So, such an act shouldn’t be a surprise. It has done such things numerous times. Regime change in Iraq, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya are prime examples of such operations. From Latin America to Middle East, America’s history has been fraught with such strategic interventions. Recently, President Biden himself declared to remove Russian President Putin. Though it was retracted by his team.
With such a long track record, the foreign conspiracy orchestrated by US to remove Imran Khan seems plausible. In addition, the strained pattern of Pak-US relations with numerous points of contention, give strength to regime change operation. Though, Imran Khan’s move to publicly announce the US move will have serious ramifications for him in the future.
Nowadays, after his removal as a PM, Imran Khan is enjoying the massive support of common people in Pakistan and even abroad. Huge number of protests were conducted all over the country for him. His party demands immediate elections. It will be a difficult journey for Imran Khan and his party members under the government of opposition with PML-N Shehbaz Sharif leading it.
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New data from the World Bank finds that private investment in low- and middle-income country infrastructure is rebounding from the historic...
As an effective regional governance structure, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gives a forum for Southeast Asian members to...
Global inflation has continued to climb throughout this year, posing a severe obstacle to economic recovery and development in all...
Taiwan: A threat towards global security?
An Assessment of China’s Recent Financial Stability Law
U.S. Meddling in Pakistani Politics
For Abkhazia and South Ossetia Security with Russia Equals Economic Troubles
The UK’s “Separation Centres”: Re-visiting counter-terror measures
Impacts of Covid-19 on the world economy
Visit of Japanese PM Fumio Kishida to Vietnam